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Join thousands of other traders. Just click the green button below to create a free account and get instant access. One of the great advantages of forex trading is that the forex market is open 24 hours a day, five days a week (Sunday, 5:00 PM to Friday, 4:00 PM ET). When markets move based on news, economic data is often the primary catalyst for short-term movements. This is especially true in the forex market, which reacts not only to US economic indicators, but also to news from around the world. Here we look at what economic numbers are being released, what data is most important to forex traders, and how traders can act on this market-moving information.
With most forex brokers available to trade at least eight major currencies, there is always economic data to be released that forex traders can use to make informed trades. In fact, almost every day of the week (excluding holidays) there are seven or more dates from the top eight countries with the most subscribers. So there are many options for those who decide to trade the news. Eight major currencies are familiar to most traders:
Currencies that can be easily traded span the globe. This means that you can choose the currencies and economic news that you pay the most attention to. However, since the US dollar is usually on the “other side” of 90% of all currency transactions, US economic news tends to have the biggest impact on currency markets.
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Trade news is more complicated than it seems. Not only the consensus numbers are important, but also the whisper numbers (unofficial and unpublished forecasts) and any changes to previous reports. Also, some releases are more important than others; This can be measured both by the importance of the country publishing the data and by the importance of the publication relative to other published data.
Figure 1 shows the approximate times (Eastern time) of the most important economic news releases for each of the following countries. This is also the time when forex players pay close attention to the markets, especially when trading based on news releases.
If you’re trading news, the first thing you need to know is what releases are expected this week. Second, it is also important to know what data is important. In general, the most important information relates to changes in interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, such as retail sales, manufacturing, and industrial production:
Depending on current economic conditions, the relative importance of these publications may change. For example, unemployment may be more important than decisions about trade or interest rates this month. Therefore, it is important to monitor what the market is currently focused on.
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According to a study by Martin DD Evans and Richard C. Lyons published in the Journal of International Money and Finance (2004), the market can absorb or react to press releases hours, if not days, after the as the numbers will be published.
The study found that the impact on profitability usually occurs on the first or second day, but the effect seems to last until the fourth day. The effect on buy and sell order flow, on the other hand, is still very pronounced on day three and can be seen on day four.
The most common way to trade the news is to look for a period of consolidation or uncertainty before a big number and trade the breakout based on the news. It can be short-term (within a day) or longer, several days. As an example, consider the chart in Figure 2. After a weak reading in September, the Euro held its breath ahead of the October readings, which were due to be released in November.
During the 17 hours leading up to the release, EUR/USD was confined to a tight trading range of 30 pips. (Pips are the smallest measure of change in a currency pair in the forex market, and since most major currency pairs are priced to four decimal places, the smallest change is the last decimal point.) For news traders, this would provide a great breakout opportunity. Trade, especially since the probability of a strong move at that point was extremely high.
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The chart above illustrates – with two horizontal lines forming a trading channel – the uncertainty and uncertainty that led to the release of the non-farm payrolls figures in early November. Note the spike in volatility that occurred after the numbers were released.
We’ve already mentioned that trading news is more difficult than you might think. why? The main reason is volatility. You may make the right move, but the market may not have enough momentum to support the move.
As an example, consider the chart in Figure 3. This chart shows the activity after the same release as in Figure 2 (but in a different time period) to show how complex trade news releases can be. On November 4, 2005, the market expected wages to increase by 120,000 jobs, but instead the US economy only added 56,000 jobs. The disappointment saw the dollar sell off about 60 points against the euro in the first 25 minutes after the release.
However, the dollar’s bullish momentum was so strong that the rally was quickly reversed, and within an hour EUR/USD broke through its previous low and indeed hit a 1.5-year low against the dollar. There were plenty of opportunities for breakout traders, but the dollar’s rally was so strong that such poor wage data didn’t affect the currency’s rally. One thing to keep in mind is that a strong move from a good number should also result in a strong overspend.
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The chart above shows that while worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls briefly boosted the EUR/USD pair, strong USD momentum was able to take over and push higher. Keep this in mind as the US Dollar rises against the Euro.
One possible way to catch a volatility breakout without risking a reversal is to trade exotic options. There are exotic options in general
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